The MPL Customer Letter - April '26

Market/Trade Information

Asia

• China's export engine slowed sharply in March and it is not looking to turn around soon as war in the Middle East triggered shocks to energy and transportation costs, hurting global demand and exposing the risks in China’s strategy of leaning on manufacturing to sustain growth. The Chinese industry ramped up for 2026 to be the year in which AI- electronics would fuel demand. But the conflict has disrupted global growth. The Chinese government is already taking actions to absorb the reduced foreign demand by trying to revive consumption in the own domestic market.

• Transpacific rates have risen steeply. It is doubtful however that the increase is thanks to extra volumes or rather due to the rising fuel cost for which the carriers seek compensation.

• Alphaliner made a study on the Intra-Asia business and beyond. The result showed that medium-sized carriers by far outperform the global carriers, who are also active on the same niche trades, when looking at net profit. It seems the smaller carriers can react more agilely to market changes and can profit from growth markets out of China and strong chartering-out activities.

Europe/ Mediterranean / Black Sea

• The port of Antwerp-Bruges was blocked in the heart of the port because of an oil spillage at the Deurganckdok in Antwerp (the largest tidal dock in the world, which handles 67% of all container traffic for Port of Antwerp-Bruges). The incident happened on April 9th. Only on April 12th the cleanup of the water, ships and infrastructure has resulted in a release of the vessels and opening of the surrounding locks on right bank. The port operations however were without impact from April 20th.

North and Central America

• Ship owners are paying a premiums for a passage through the Panama Canal. In a few weeks’ time, the average auction price jumped from $140K per passage to $380K. Individual slots reached $1.7 mln for a Panamax and even $4 mln for a Neopanamax vessel. These individual slots are often used to get priority on the reservations system. The steep rise is a result of commercial vessels seeking other routes to steer clear of the Iranian coast.

 Latin America

• CMA has introduced a new terminal in Colombia, Puerto Antioquia. The terminal will connect Medellin and Bogota directly to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, the US Gulf region and Brazil. Main commodity-drivers (for export) are flowers, coffee and of course bananas.

• ONE and Cosco will remove Paranaguá on their Europe-East Coast South America loop. In Europe, Felixstowe will be skipped also. The removal of the two ports is an attempt to increase schedule reliability.

Red Sea and Gulf area

• Although the USA and Iran have agreed on a temporary ceasefire for two weeks, starting April 8th, not much has changed. A bunch of mixed signals or wrong information are only adding to the confusion.The US claims it will fully open the strait and Iran claims the passage will remain under Iranian control. (meaning toll fees of +/- 2mln USD). Following continued attacks by Israel on Lebanon, the Iranian government said that a ceasefire is pointless and agreements (like on the strait) will not be respected. The US army has begun a blockade of Iranian ports. HLL calculated that the current situation is costing them 60mln USD every week because of the higher fuel cost, insurance premiums and temporary storage of container in other locations. In the meantime on April 18th a CMA CGM vessel got fired upon, as a warning not to try to pass the strait of Hormuz. Although on the same day, 6 MSC vessels could ‘escape’ the area. On April 22nd, the Iranian revolutionary guard has seized two MSC vessels. The Iranian media reports that these vessels were in violation. A clear reason however is not provided. The next day the US marines have taken control of an oil tanker which departed from Iran.

• Despite clear issues on the east shores of the Arabian Peninsula, CMA CGM is currently testing a return to the Red Sea (west shores). At least seven loops are taking the shorter route via Bab-el-Mandeb again, passing the Suez Canal. The service currently being ‘tested’ are Asia-Med, Med-India/Pakistan, Far East-Red Sea and Far East-Middle East.

• This optimistic outlook is being questioned as the maritime safety agency United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) only reported last week two vessels, got hijacked (a freight vessel, MV ‘Sward’, and an oil tanker MV ‘Honour 25’) near the shores of Somalia. In the past three years the reports of piracy in the region have been increasing.

General information

• The merger agreement between Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM is under review. Until the transaction closes, Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM remain competitors and do “business as usual”. The necessary approvals of regulatory authorities and ZIM shareholders are expected by late 2026 only. The current CEO of ZIM, Eli Glickman will step down after a failed takeover. Glickman teamed up with Israeli billionaire Tami Ungar to do a management buyout. Their offer however was deemed too low versus the eventual winning bid by Hapag-Lloyd.

• Airfreight prices have risen 95%. As a result of fuel increases and high demand for cargo shipments, the airfreight has taken a serious jump when comparing February with March. Rates are nearing the pandemic records. Given the volatility on the market and almost daily change the airfreight prices spike tremendously and careful price management is advised.